Cyclical nature of the textile industry

Since last year, the textile industry raw materials market ups and downs are indeed dazzling, with one of the industry's most commonly used to describe: the impact factors are too complex, it is increasingly difficult to determine the future trend." However, after in-depth analysis, we will find that some of the inherent laws of the industry has never disappeared, and has been playing an important role in the cycle is the case. China Chemical Fiber Association, honorary president Zheng Zhiyi has repeatedly to reporters about chemical industry cycle, that after the financial crisis in chemical fiber industry entered a new round of rising cycle, but this year ushered in a new period of adjustment. And the impact of abnormal factors such as cotton prices fluctuate, so that the extent of this adjustment deeper, more extensive.
The adjustment cycle shortened trend analysis from the prices of chemical products, with polyester as an example, in January, polyester filament rose fast in the promotion of raw material prices, reached 15600 yuan / ton, polyester fiber in short cut after rapidly rising prices, reached 14500 yuan / ton; 2~3 month rally slowed, polyester the factory inventory pressure, financial pressure also increased significantly, the downstream weaving industry started a slow recovery, has a certain effect on the demand for polyester; 3~4, polyester products prices fell rapidly, to mid May fell to the lowest 13900 yuan / tons of polyester filament polyester staple fiber, about 12600 yuan / ton; 5 at the end of the market stabilized stabilized, in June there is a slight rally. Throughout the process, affected by cotton prices driven by other factors, polyester prices than in previous years fluctuations larger, frequency faster, but still has periodicity, the traditional light season reflected in them.
According to the reporter, in 2004 China Chemical Fiber Association proposed the operation of the industry has a cyclical operation. From the historical perspective, the economic performance of the chemical fiber industry is very tenacious performance. In the past few years is a small round of 4~5 adjustment, 10 years or so a big adjustment. In recent years, due to the accelerated changes in the macro environment, coupled with the rapid development of industry technology and crude oil price fluctuations and other factors, resulting in a significant increase in the frequency of cycle fluctuations, basic 3 years a cycle. Zheng Zhiyi analysis, according to the 30 years of chemical fiber industry to run the regular pattern, in 2010 the chemical fiber industry has entered a new cycle of rise, but the industry adjustment will be more obvious. It is expected that the global economic recovery by growth and crude oil prices rose oscillation, synthetic fiber raw material prices also rising oscillation, cotton supply will support the fiber raw material prices remain high; downstream demand growth will also to chemical fibber price produced significant role in boosting. Chemical fiber industry between petroleum chemical industry and textile industry and raw materials accounted for the proportion of chemical fiber production cost is very high (synthetic general in 80% ~ 85%), and petroleum chemical industry in an oligopoly, so chemical fiber industry easily by crude oil and synthetic fiber raw material price fluctuations of the impact, coupled with the economic development and the operation of the market factors change and chemical fiber industry, their operation and development characteristics of impact, resulting in a very obvious cyclical industry operation rules.
In 2008, for example, the trend of world oil prices can be said is ups and downs, thereby increasing the enterprises of raw materials of judgment and the difficulty of operation and increase the operating risk of an enterprise. And the rapid decline in the price of raw materials, a direct result of loss of cash, in the case of polyester raw material PTA, eg, import cycle in 25 ~ 40 days, domestic inventory cycle general in 7 ~ 15 days, this period inventory per ton of raw material loss reached a thousand dollars or more. 2009 crude oil rose to $81.97 from $32, low oil prices gone forever. The rise in crude oil prices will directly promote the price of synthetic fiber materials and chemical materials, have a greater impact on the industry operation.
The continuous acceleration of this cyclical transformation, the operation and development of the industry is greatly affected, the difficulty and risk of enterprises to grasp the production and operation increased significantly. After the outbreak of the financial crisis in 2008, especially 9~10 months, crude oil and chemical fiber raw material prices plunge, enterprise inventory, in transit, online raw materials and product loss is very heavy, fully proved this point.
Enterprises through the cyclical grasp of business strategies
Reporter recently found that the grasp of the cyclical nature of the enterprise has become an important factor in the development of business strategies. A viscose fiber as main raw material yarn enterprises responsible person told the reporter, this year half enterprise operating in good condition, in addition to their own technology and equipment advantages, the key lies on an accurate grasp of the viscose fiber point of purchase. In the person in charge of the office, put a carefully drawn over the years, the price of viscose fiber chart, in each node with a note, the periodicity of viscose price at a glance. "Not only this year, the financial crisis in the most serious time, we also rely on this map to accurately judge the situation, grasp the rhythm of the procurement of raw materials, to avoid a huge loss of cash flow." The responsible person said. According to the reporter, in the viscose production enterprise, will have the upstream raw material price chart of pulp. When the industry chain is not perfect to resist all risks of raw material price fluctuations, the analysis of periodicity is a feasible way.
Of course, the periodicity is also reflected in the production process of the product. If the price surge, the longer the production cycle, the greater the adverse impact on the product. In general, polyester inventory cycle in about 15 days, cotton and viscose inventory cycle for 30 days or longer. Reporters had done in the previous series of viscose fiber industry reported that when the viscose industry has reached a loss of 80%. In the whole chemical fiber industry